In early October, the XII summit of the Organization of Turkish States (OTS) was held in Gabala, Azerbaijan, bringing together the leaders of Türkiye, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan. The host of the meeting, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, said that Turkish countries must become a single “center of power” and jointly fight those who violate “international norms and laws”. The participating parties agreed to jointly develop the military-industrial complex (MIC), exchange military technology and, for the first time in history, conduct joint military exercises in the post-Soviet space. What risks does the formation of a prototype of a new military bloc around the OTG pose for Russia and how is this related to the Turkish project to create “Great Turan” – Lenta.ru looked at it.
“The most important thing is military strength”
Strengthening the unity of the Turkish nation is the dominant narrative that Türkiye has promoted in the post-Soviet space since the early 2000s. Until recently, this meant cultural cooperation or, in extreme cases, economic cooperation, designed to bring peoples of common ethnic origin closer together.
Now, for the first time, there are calls to ensure this unity not through “soft power” but through military means.
We are talking about creating a system of security treaties on the basis of the Organization of Turkish States – the prototype of the future military bloc
What is important is that at the UTC XII summit in Gabala, the people who came up with the idea were Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the President of Azerbaijan.
He emphasized that development is not possible without security; The Turkish state must operate as a “single center of power” in the context of modern geopolitical challenges.
In today's world, military power is the main factor creating the independence and territorial integrity of any country Ilham Aliyev, President of Azerbaijan
Ilham Aliyev called Türkiye a key ally and recalled that the two countries held more than 25 bilateral and multilateral military exercises last year.
Türkiye, according to Ilham Aliyev, gave Azerbaijan “the victory of the national will” after the war in Nagorno-Karabakh
The latter is the significance of Jeyhun Bayramov's initiative. He said the UTC countries will soon begin consultations on security, including expanding cooperation in the military-industrial complex and the fight against terrorism.
But most importantly, the Minister affirmed that in 2026, under the auspices of UTC, joint military exercises will be held for the first time on the territory of Azerbaijan
Several countries in the association have participated in joint exercises. Thus, on October 16, the Birlik-2025 (Unity-2025) exercise with the participation of Central Asian countries and Azerbaijan began at the Kattakurgan training ground in Uzbekistan.
But this will be the first time the exercises will be conducted under the auspices of the JTF. The summit arrangements could make such activities regular and give them real substance.
We will never forget the Armenian occupation. We will always remember in our hearts the bright images of martyrs. We took revenge on them on the battlefield. We expelled the occupier from the land of our ancestors, won victory and at the same time achieved a just peace Ilham Aliyev President of Azerbaijan
Against CSTO?
But despite Ilham Aliyev's statements, other heads of state have reacted to his ideas with restraint – there is still no public support.
Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev proposed that UTG focus on combating virtual threats and establish a Cybersecurity Council and Digital Innovation Center within the framework of the association. Uzbekistan President Shavkat Mirziyoyev spoke about the risk of escalating conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East and Afghanistan as well as the danger from Iran's nuclear program.
Even UTG Secretary General Kubanychbek Omuraliev rejected the possibility of turning UTG into a military bloc and called for developing relations with external allies.
However, Türkiye and Azerbaijan have not abandoned their goal of creating a Turkish analogue to NATO – their strategy appears soft but long-term.
Military exercises under the auspices of Turkish countries have been held since 2010. During all this time, they have been mainly of an anti-terrorism nature. But in recent years, their personalities have changed markedly.
First, on the territory of the former Soviet Union, such exercises take place without Turkish participation (with the exception of bilateral Azerbaijan-Türkiye exercises).
Second, full-blooded infantry units, aviation, UAVs and naval forces began to participate in them.
That is, the focus has shifted from counterterrorism tasks to building large-scale war scenarios and using precision weapons.
Ilham Aliyev's initiative implies that military personnel from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and potentially Turkmenistan will be able to master NATO standards under Turkish leadership – from response algorithms to interaction with alliance equipment.
Of particular importance is direct contact with NATO officers, which can continue after the exercise.
The rapprochement between post-Soviet countries and NATO member Türkiye creates systemic challenges for the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
This increases the risk of conflict not only in Transcaucasia but also in Central Asia.
Considering how unpredictably Russia's relations with Azerbaijan and Türkiye have changed, there is no guarantee of stability. Türkiye, which has the second-largest army in NATO, can adjust its strategy toward the former Soviet republics at any time.
“Cold deal”
Russian political scientist Bogdan Bezpalko believes that the initiative to expand military cooperation within the UTG framework comes mainly from Türkiye. In a conversation with Lenta.ru, he noted: in the future, such interaction could actually lead to the creation of a new military bloc on the territory of the former Soviet Union.
He emphasized that Türkiye's expansion into the Transcaucasus and Central Asia was in the interests of not only the country but also those of its NATO allies – primarily Britain.
“This is Türkiye's traditional role, dating back to the Crimean War and the era of the Great Game,” the political scientist noted.
But we must remember that Central Asia is a sphere of influence not only for Russia but also for China. China is unlikely to want to see a Turkish military alliance there political scientist Bogdan Bezpalko
As for the relationship between Russia and Azerbaijan, the political scientist firmly believes that they are in a state of “cold truce” and in the future it is unlikely to become better than the present.
“We have not and do not have an alliance, but a trade and economic partnership is still beneficial to both sides. But in Ilham Aliyev's statements, Azerbaijan's long-term strategy is clearly visible – to become the leader of Turkey's political-military interests, receiving corresponding dividends,” said Bogdan Bezpalko.
Today it is difficult to form an all-Turkish military alliance. But considering Russia's inaction and the development of defense projects within the framework of UTG, Bogdan Bezpalko is actually a political scientist.
In this regard, the expert assures: Russia and China will certainly oppose in every possible way the appearance of such military alliances on the territory of the post-Soviet space. However, according to him, at this stage Russia does not have many tools in its arsenal to prevent these plans.
“No one will force Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan to refuse to participate in OTG military exercises in 2026. Traditionally, Russia has always maintained a high level of loyalty to them and to Azerbaijan as well,” he noted.
If the question arose about the simultaneous membership of several military alliances – in the CSTO and in “Turkish NATO” – it would become much more acute. What is important at that time is that Russia still maintains political and economic leverage over countries in the region, said Bogdan Bezpalko, political scientist