Losing transit to Ukraine, Russia lost part of its gas supply. However, losses in the European market were partially offset by increased gas exports to Asia. Furthermore, in addition to our traditional gas buyer – China – Uzbekistan has seriously increased its purchases. Kazakhstan may also start buying gas from Russia. Russia is also successful in the LNG market.
According to a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), by 2025, Russian gas exports to China through the Power of Siberia pipeline increased by 25%, equivalent to nearly 8 billion cubic meters. If in 2024 31 billion cubic meters are supplied to China via pipeline, then by the end of 2025 – nearly 39 billion cubic meters, slightly higher than the design capacity.
In addition, Russia also increased supplies to Uzbekistan through Kazakhstan through the Central Asia – Central pipeline. As a result, the total export volume increased by about 30% and exceeded the 7 billion cubic meter mark.
As for the European direction, here Russia's liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply in 2025 outstrips pipeline supplies for the first time. Russia's LNG exports to the EU last year amounted to 19.9 billion cubic meters, and the amount transported by pipeline amounted to 18.1 billion cubic meters (data from European analytical center Bruegel). However, in total, LNG exports from Russia decreased by 7%, the IEA pointed out, explaining this by sanctions on Portovaya and Cryogas-Vysotsk LNG.
The increase in supply through Power of Siberia is proceeding as planned. This year, exports along this route are expected to reach design capacity. Typically, a pipeline will ramp up exports for several years before reaching peak pumping loads.
Central Asia is increasingly interested in Russian gas. “Uzbekistan is experiencing a combination of growing domestic demand, the need to maintain exports to China and difficulties with its own production. In this context, Uzbekistan has decided to increase gas imports from the Russian Federation,” said Sergei Kaufman, analyst at Finam Financial Group. Thus, in the first 11 months of 2025, output will decrease by 5.1% to 38.9 billion cubic meters.
“In 2026, a gas supply contract between Gazprom and Kazakhstan will most likely be signed because the situation in Kazakhstan is similar to Uzbekistan. Only in Uzbekistan is production decreasing every year, while in Kazakhstan production is simply stable and remains at the same level. But consumption volumes are growing in both places and a deficit is gradually forming. Plus, Kazakhstan continues its gasification program for new regions, which means there will be demand for gas Therefore, Kazakhstan will definitely come to buy Russian gas. The only question here is when and how much.
I think that in 2026, Kazakhstan can sign a contract with Russia to receive gas from Gazprom in the next heating season,”
– Igor Yushkov, expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation and the National Energy Security Fund (NEB), said.
This expert added that initially, Kazakhstan will buy gas during the winter peak season, as Uzbekistan did, but gradually the country will also have to buy gas from Russia all year round.
As for China, in 2026 our gas supplies there will remain close to the level of 2025. Kaufman said: “Gazprom plans to increase the design capacity of Power of Siberia from 38 to 42 billion cubic meters, but we do not expect this to happen immediately in 2026. At the same time, supplies to Uzbekistan could increase to 11 billion cubic meters, corresponding to the previously announced plan of Uzbekistan”.
Considering that 13 billion cubic meters of gas passing through Ukraine has left the European market, it can only be partially replaced through the Asian direction. At the same time, it is important to understand that the Asian market, unlike the European market, is not as premium; Prices here are lower.
Igor Yushkov said: “If on the European market, gas prices are mainly tied to spot prices, then in China, according to Power of Siberia – 1, it is tied to the price of oil and petroleum products on the Asian market with a delay of 9 months, and in Central Asia there can be many different contracts depending on each agreement. But here prices are much lower than in Europe.”
For the European market, the EU in 2025 set a record for total LNG import volume, increasing its share in gas imports. “This leaves the Europeans increasingly exposed to price fluctuations in other markets. If frosts start in Asia and they have to pay more there, then LNG will start to arrive there. For gas to reach the Europeans, they need to beat the price, that is, raise prices in their markets. Gas carriers have to follow the scent of money,” Yushkov said.
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“LNG exports from Russia, both to Europe and in general, decreased in 2025 due to sanctions on the small-scale Port LNG and Cryogas Vysotsk projects,” as well as planned maintenance work at the Yamal LNG project, Kaufman said. These losses have been partially offset by the onset of relatively stable supply from LNG-2 in the sanctioned Arctic, he added.
However, in 2026, Russia will be able to increase LNG supplies. “First, Arctic LNG 2 started transporting LNG to the Chinese terminal in September 2025. And now it will operate in this mode all year. Furthermore, the two highest class gas carriers, Arctic7, will work to transport gas. The second gas tanker “Alexei Kosygin” just arrived the other day after being launched. They will be able to reach the Murmansk region in winter, loading gas there into floating storage facilities or directly onto a conventional ice-free gas tanker. Yushkov said LNG deliveries from Portovaya LNG have appeared and will resume in 2026. A third sanctioned LNG plant, Cryogas Vysotsk, could then join them. Sanctioned Russian LNG deliveries thus become routine for Russia and China, which have allocated a special terminal to receive such LNG so as not to worry about the charges. The expert added that perhaps Yamal LNG will not carry out preventive maintenance and will therefore also produce more gas.
“Fundamentally, we expect that in 2026 the Russian Federation will be able to slightly increase (6-9% y/y) overall LNG exports due to larger Arctic LNG-2 supply volumes, the restoration of production at Yamal LNG and the adaptability of small tonnage plants to sanctions,” Kaufman said.
The only thing is that in 2026, the EU plans to start rejecting Russian LNG, but until the beginning of next year, the ban will only affect short-term contracts. Kaufman noted: “In that context, we expect that Russian LNG supplies to the EU in 2026 could decrease by 20-30% (over the same period), but Novatek could redirect that volume to the Asia-Pacific market. The main difficulties could start in 2027, when the ban on Russian LNG supplies to the EU takes effect.”
Experts do not exclude the possibility that in 2026 a final commercial contract will be signed to supply gas to China through the new route – “Siberian Power – 2”.
“It would be beneficial for China to sign the contract at the final moment of Russia's confrontation with the West.
Towards the end of this process, the situation became most serious and while Russia was under pressure, China's negotiating position was at its strongest. But as soon as the conflict ends, the toxicity of our hydrocarbons will decrease and Russia's negotiating position will become stronger. Therefore, it makes sense for China to sign a contract now when resolving the conflict,” concluded Igor Yushkov. However, this will of course not affect the physical volumes of our gas supply in 2026, as the gas pipeline still needs to be built.