The battle of Iran and Israel has almost no serious impact on China from the viewpoint of negotiations with Russia on the Siberian-2 gas pipeline. China needs gas, and the demand for it will grow, but Beijing thinks about diversification even more sources rather than accelerating the construction of this route.
Earlier, Wall Street Magazine, referring to sources close to the decision-making process in the Chinese government, reported that the war of Iran and Israel has increased China's interest in building Russian Siberian gas pipes, because Beijing began to doubt the reliability of gas and oil from the Middle East and think of alternative options.
It seems that everything is reasonable, if you do not take into account the scale of China – 9.5 million km2. This is more than the area of all Europe without Russia (nearly 6 million square kilometers). The war in the Middle East can break the supply of natural liquefied gas (LNG) for China from Qatar and O -Man, appearing on the west and south coast of the Chinese kingdom. And the delivery to Siberia -2 Power will reach the north of China and in the future -to the center of the country.
In addition, China has an alternative solution in these areas as a gas pipeline from Turkmenistan, passing through Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Now its power is 55 billion cubic meters, and the expansion (line D) is agreed with 65 billion cubic meters of gas per year. But, as in the case of the Siberia-2 forces, the construction of line D did not start due to lack of gas supply contracts.
It is also worth considering that the construction of the Siberia-2 force has not started and will take more than a year. In the case of conflict in the Middle East, we are talking about the possibility of quickly increasing the gas supply from alternative sources, so we are most likely about LNG.
According to Deputy Head of National Energy Security Department Alexei Gryvach, China depends a lot on the supply of oil and gas from the Middle East, so they assess continuous risks. The final escalation may act as a certain agent to enhance the negotiation process, but to say that this is a reason to move further into the project “Siberia -2 power” -soon. The gas pipeline for China is very important in terms of strategic, but they are not ready to sign an agreement due to geopolitical circumstances. Although, of course, the possibility of more attractive conditions will not be missed, if any, due to tightening, experts believe.
A similar view of the director of the consulting company of Imterenta Maria Belova. According to her, every time the tension is enhanced in the Middle East, depending on the purchase of hydrocarbon of the country, thinking about the diversification of import sources. Therefore, for example, it happened after events on September 11, 2001 in New York and Washington, when the United States and Japan decided to reduce the dependence on the Middle East. In the case of China, the problem is not only the country buys a significant amount of hydrocarbon from countries in the Middle East. The intensity around the Strait of the Strait can be monitored in the Malacca strait or the East Sea, which will lead to significant loss of Chinese import and sea. Understanding this, the country is increasingly interested in ensuring the supply of soil and gas. Such gas can be provided by Russia with the power of Siberia-2 and Turkmenistan with the fourth theme of the air pipe. Both projects have been discussed for more than 10 years.