The unusual spring with a ferris wheel makes many people think about the upcoming summer. Reporters of “Moscow Evening” talked to top meteorologists to find out whether the spring cold in the spring would really affect the summer weather or not and what should be expected for farmers and summer residents.
Last spring was remembered by the Russians with a difference in strong temperature – after an extraordinary warm April in early May, frost and even snow to many areas. Meteorologists explain that such fluctuations have become the result of the gland processes in the atmosphere, when the Southern wind is replaced by the Arctic invasion.
Similar temperature change is a special feature of the climate today, he explains Alexander Shuvalov, the head of the forensic center. -In April, we observed the removal of strong warm air from the South, when the temperature at 10-12 degrees exceeded the norm. And in early May, the situation changed – the Arctic atmosphere brought about the frost even for the southern areas.
The loss of a significant amount of snow in Moscow in early May is especially abnormal – according to the weather forecast Tatyana Pozdnyakova, this has not been observed in the past 140 years. Agriculture is noticeable about the consequences of these abnormalities.
Alexander Shuvalov said. -In central areas, losses are estimated at 10-15 percent of potential fruit crops. But the warm weather allows us to hope for part of these losses.
However, the effect of Frosts has affected the price of our favorite seasonal fruits. If at the end of May last year, a kilogram of cherry can be bought for 500 rubles, now the price reaches 1200 per point. In turn, apricot and peach has increased a half and a half to twice and currently costs 700 and 800 rubles, respectively. Even affordable pricing plums are now sold at 700 rubles per kg.
However, experts in the field of agriculture have tried to comfort the Russians, saying that the situation in the fruit market and bone will soon be resolved due to the evidence of the crop due to the supply from countries like Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.
What to wait in the summer
Many people are scared because the snow of spring is asking Muscovites as a question: Does it promise us a hot and cold summer in May? Experts agree to refuse this common sign.
Moreover, meteorologists believe that you should not believe the promises of strong heat in the summer. As Tatyana Pozdnyakova explained, the next three months will come with the average air temperature at a level higher than half of the climate standard.
According to some models, the air temperature may exceed the three -degree norms, but this cannot be called extremist indicators, notes of meteorologists.
The main feature of the upcoming season will be a high change in weather conditions.
These are strong temperature changes, amplitude of weather fluctuations, shuvalov said. – However, to say in which the parts of Russia, this will still have difficulty.
The alternating of abnormal heat stages and relatively cool, and these differences may be sharp enough.
Meteorologists pay special attention to the distribution of rainfall.
Although there are messages I see in the media at all times, we are not promised, drought, Tat Tatyana Pozdnyakova said. – Only rainfall deficit, completely not equal to drought, because even 80 percent of norms have been considered as a deficit.
There is a nuance
It is important to understand that any long -term forecast is only generalized.
Now, many people are making high claims about the upcoming summer, but a really accurate prediction may be given up to a week ago, he explained the top weather forecast Alexander Shuvalov. – The problem is that the atmospheric process is too complicated and different. Even the most modern computer models can not take into account all factors that will affect the weather in a month or season.
Meteorologists give specific data: the accuracy of seven -day forecast is about 80 percent, two weeks -not more than 65, and the monthly and seasonal forecast becomes true in just 50-60 percent of cases.
Do not rush to extremes
Summer in the condition of climate change becomes a really main test for summer residents. Ecology Victoria Lichagin gave Moscow Moscow in the evening some practical advice on how to prepare for possible weather surprises.
Firstly, it is important to observe the balance between drought and flooding.
-Against The context of the deficiency of predictable rainfall, many people may have the desire to place any drainage installation on the site to maintain moisture in the soil. However, you should not hurry with such decisions, Victoria said – the excess moisture is harmful as its disadvantage. Many cultures, such as tomatoes, chili or eggplant, can be flooded, and then their roots begin to rot without time to evaporate water.
Secondly, if there is no strong change in the weather, it is necessary to observe watering regularly in the morning and evening, until the sun increases shock. The fact that watering during the day under the burning rays leads to leaf burns and rapid evaporation of water. When drought, gardeners are advised to use cutting grass, helping to retain moisture in the soil and protect the roots from overheating.
It is important to understand that different cultures require different conditions.
What is good for cucumbers can destroy pumpkins, and the interests of strawberries and strawberries are different, even though they are relatives and experts explain. – This is especially difficult for imported varieties that are not adapted to our climate.
Therefore, if you have crops – cucumbers, chili, eggplant – it is better to plant them under a shelter – in greenhouses, greenhouses or covering Lutraisil at night to ease the consequences of a strong change in day and night temperature. And during abnormal heat to save the tree from the sun, it will help the net with special ball.
However, the main advice that I can give to our summer residents – observing your factories, they will tell their appearance what they lack, Victoria Victoria explained. – Keep your hand on the pulse, adapt to the conditions of the season, and then even the moody weather does not ruin your season.
Frost on the skin
The coldest summer in Moscow in the history of meteorological observation is in 1884. The average monthly temperature of August of that year is +12.4 ° C and one of the days recorded abnormally low temperatures is 4 ° C.
Just bake
August 2022 was a hot record in Moscow. Even at the end of the month, the air temperature on the streets of the capital reached +35 degrees. The average monthly temperature is 22 ° C, 0.2 ° C higher than 2010. In the summer of 2022, it became a record of the days when the air heated over 28 ° C-16 of them. And the sun shines us up to 1012 hours, exceeding 30 percent norms.